李迅雷专栏 | 如何提高“以旧换新”受益人口覆盖率

Core Viewpoint - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods, implemented from 2024 to 2025, is supported by a total of 450 billion yuan in long-term special government bond funds, benefiting over 480 million consumers and driving retail sales growth by 0.6 percentage points. However, the policy's multiplier effect is less than expected, with a decline in the number of beneficiaries in the latter half of 2025 [1][2][24]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Financial Support - The State Council issued measures in July 2024, allocating approximately 150 billion yuan for 2024 and 300 billion yuan for 2025 to support the "old-for-new" policy, expanding the number of eligible product categories from 8 to 12 [3][4]. - The estimated sales driven by the "old-for-new" policy for various categories in 2024 and 2025 include over 1.15 million vehicles and over 1.29 billion home appliances, with total sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Sales Growth and Market Impact - Retail sales growth for "old-for-new" related products showed an initial acceleration followed by a decline, with significant growth in communication equipment and cultural office supplies, while home appliances and automotive sales growth lagged behind [4][11]. - The first year after the policy implementation saw a 10% increase in sales for related categories, but the second year showed only a 2% increase, indicating a diminishing effect [8][10]. Group 3: Consumer Demographics and Coverage - The policy has primarily benefited high-income and middle-income groups, with a significant portion of the total consumption driven by automotive sales, which accounted for 61.5% of the total consumption increase in 2025 [24]. - The number of beneficiaries was limited, with only 480 million participants, suggesting that the coverage of the policy needs to be expanded to include more low- and middle-income consumers [24][25]. Group 4: Future Recommendations and Adjustments - To enhance the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" policy, considerations include increasing funding, broadening the range of eligible products, and lowering the average price of subsidized items to better engage low-income consumers [24][25]. - Future adjustments to the policy may focus on promoting employment and income stability, rather than solely on consumption scale, to ensure a more sustainable economic impact [25].