野村首席观点 | 陆挺：2026年两会前瞻

Economic Growth Target - The government is expected to slightly lower the GDP growth target for 2026 to a range of 4.5%-5.0%, down from approximately 5.0% in 2025, with 21 out of 31 provincial-level regions adjusting their targets downward [4] CPI Inflation Target - The CPI inflation target for 2026 is anticipated to remain at around 2.0%, consistent with the previous year, despite an actual CPI inflation rate drop to 0.0% in 2025 [5] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to maintain an "appropriate easing" stance, with the central bank likely to implement a policy interest rate cut and a reserve requirement ratio cut in the second quarter of 2026 [6] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is projected to play a leading role in addressing demand slowdown, with a fiscal deficit rate set at 4.0%, higher than the previous 3.0% [7] Consumption Promotion Policies - The government is likely to continue enhancing policy support for consumption, confirming the scale of fiscal subsidies and reiterating structural measures such as maternity subsidies and social security system improvements [8] Real Estate Policy - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to reaffirm the real estate policy framework established in December 2025, with local governments primarily driving the implementation of most easing measures [9] "15th Five-Year" Plan - The final version of the "15th Five-Year" plan is expected to provide specific guidance for economic and social development from 2026 to 2030, with a focus on building a strong, independent industrial ecosystem and significantly increasing consumption [10]