数据点评 | 如何理解2月PMI下行？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The February PMI further declined, likely due to the long and late Spring Festival holiday imposing significant constraints on the supply side [3][9]. Manufacturing PMI - In February, the manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.3 percentage points to 49%, influenced by the long Spring Festival holiday, which lasted 9 days, the longest on record [3][4][9]. - The production index fell more sharply than the new orders index, with the production index down 1 percentage point to 49.6%, while the new orders index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 48.6% [3][12]. - The internal demand orders index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 49.1%, and the new export orders index dropped by 2.8 percentage points to 45% [3][12]. Industry Analysis - The Spring Festival holiday caused widespread impacts across industries, with capital-intensive industries experiencing significant declines in PMI, while labor-intensive industries maintained low levels of activity [4][16]. - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs fell by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points to 51.5% and 49.8%, respectively [4][16]. - Labor-intensive sectors like consumer goods manufacturing and high-energy industries maintained low PMIs of 48.8% and 47.8% [4][19]. Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing PMI showed asymmetric effects from the Spring Festival, with the construction PMI continuing to decline, while service-related PMIs improved [4][18]. - The construction PMI fell by 0.6 percentage points to 48.2%, while the service PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7% [4][18]. - Sectors related to consumer travel, such as accommodation and dining, had PMIs above 60%, indicating high levels of activity, while retail and air transport PMIs rose above 52% [4][18]. Future Outlook - With the resumption of work and production alongside increased domestic demand policies, the PMI may rebound, with a focus on marginal changes in domestic demand [5][22]. - Despite the short-term disruptions from the Spring Festival, expectations for manufacturing and construction have improved, with production activity indices rising [5][22]. - The government's focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption is gradually becoming more effective, suggesting that the resilience of domestic demand may surpass that of external demand [5][22]. Regular Tracking - The manufacturing PMI continued to decline, with new orders and export orders indices both falling [6][28]. - The service PMI saw a slight increase, but the new orders index decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 45.7% [6][34]. - The construction PMI continued to decline, with the new orders index showing a marginal increase of 2.1 percentage points to 42.2% [6][38].