【银行】春节因素对2月信贷扰动较小——流动性观察第123期（王一峰/赵晨阳）

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The financing demand remains to be restored, leading to a relatively mild "opening red" performance in January, with a decrease in loan increments year-on-year. February's credit is constrained by the Spring Festival misalignment and insufficient demand, with an expected loan increment around 1 trillion yuan [6]. Group 1: Loan and Credit Forecasts - It is anticipated that the new RMB loans in February will be around 1 trillion yuan, with a growth rate declining to approximately 6% [6]. - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 49%, indicating a drop in business activity due to the Spring Festival [6]. - The seasonal decline in loan issuance is expected due to fewer working days in February compared to the previous year, with only 17 days this year versus 19 days last year [6]. Group 2: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - The new social financing in February is projected to be around 2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate dropping to approximately 8.1% [8]. - The estimated increase in on-balance sheet loans is around 600 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [8]. - The direct financing data shows that the net financing scale of government bonds and local bonds is 1.42 trillion yuan, a decrease of 272.9 billion yuan year-on-year [8]. Group 3: Monetary Growth Trends - M1 and M2 growth rates are expected to decline slightly, influenced by the Spring Festival and reduced credit issuance [9]. - M1 growth is projected to fall from 4.9% in January to around 4.6%, while M2 growth may decrease to approximately 8.9% [10]. - The overall monetary growth remains relatively stable despite the seasonal fluctuations [10]. Group 4: Future Funding Conditions - The funding environment in March is expected to remain stable, with attention on the loan issuance at the end of the quarter [11]. - The funding conditions are likely to show a pattern of "loose at the beginning of the month, tightening at the end," influenced by increased loan issuance and government bond issuance [11]. - The focus will be on the recovery of credit demand after the Spring Festival [11].