【固收】3月扰动因素较多，建议以防御策略为主——信用债月度观察（2026.2）（张旭/秦方好）

Group 1 - The overall yield of credit bonds has decreased, following the trend of interest rate bonds, with credit spreads generally narrowing due to strong performance in the first quarter as institutions seek to allocate to coupon assets [4] - Insurance institutions have continued to play a leading role in credit bond allocation, maintaining net purchases across various maturities [4] - Funds have significantly increased net purchases of bonds with maturities of 5 years or less, particularly focusing on high liquidity bonds with maturities of 3 years or less, with notable net buying in the 0-1 year category in February [4] Group 2 - Historical patterns indicate that the bond market typically performs well in the 30 trading days following the Two Sessions, with a success rate of 83.3% after T+10 [5] - Key factors to monitor in March 2026 include changes in liquidity, potential pressure from the end of the month on credit bonds, and the impact of local government bond supply on the market [5] - The large scale of open-ended amortized cost bond funds in March 2026, totaling 132.128 billion, is expected to provide strong incremental capital for the credit bond market [5] Group 3 - In March, the volatility risk of credit bonds may increase, suggesting caution for weaker liquidity and highly elastic valuation products [6] - Short-term credit bonds are recommended for their relative liquidity and defensive attributes, while a credit downshift strategy may be employed to enhance yields due to limited coupon digging space [7] - For long-duration credit bonds, despite existing coupon value, it is advised to maintain moderate positions and consider timely reductions or structural optimizations due to market uncertainties in March [7]