中金：哪个角度更适合FOF切入资产配置叙事？

Industry Landscape - The public FOF industry is entering a second expansion cycle, with significant changes in the supply-side landscape. Since the first public FOF issuance in October 2017, the industry has experienced cycles of expansion (2020-2021), contraction (2022-2024), and is now in a new expansion phase starting in 2025. By the end of 2025, the number of public FOF products is expected to rise to 547 (up 134% year-on-year), with total assets reaching 244.1 billion yuan (up 231% year-on-year), breaking historical records. The main contributor to this growth is the mixed bond FOF category [2][7][9]. Risk and Return - In 2025, the performance of mixed bond FOFs is expected to outperform traditional "fixed income+" funds. The median return for mixed bond FOFs is projected to be 6.06%, compared to 4.65% for secondary bond funds and 5.49% for mixed bond funds. The asset allocation characteristics of mixed bond FOFs, with a stock position of 17% as of the first half of 2025, are similar to those of "fixed income+" funds, making them a common comparison in the market [2][13]. Innovative Products - The trend of passive investment continues, with ETF-FOF gaining widespread attention. By the end of 2025, the ETF market is expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan (up 62% year-on-year), with 1,381 products (up 34% year-on-year). The increasing completeness of passive investment tools is driving public FOFs towards new product forms, with 13 ETF-FOF products established and 19 more in the application or acceptance stage as of February 27, 2026 [3][18]. 2026 Outlook for Public FOF Industry - The public FOF industry is poised for development opportunities under the narrative of asset allocation. The focus will be on achieving higher performance through a combination of Beta allocation and selective fund manager alpha. The current market environment still offers significant alpha opportunities, and the ability to select capable fund managers will be crucial for performance enhancement [4][21][22]. Funding Sources - Retail investors are the primary source of funding, with institutional investors playing a supplementary role. Public FOF products are naturally more suited to individual investors due to their two-layer nested structure and ability to address selection difficulties. In 2025, the proportion of individual investors in mixed bond FOFs and mixed equity FOFs is around 95%. The focus for public FOF managers will be on retail channels, particularly banks, to attract low-risk preference funds [5][34][38].