中金 | 资产大挪移：从跨国、跨资产到跨板块

Core Viewpoint - The global bull market remains solid but is experiencing increased volatility, with a notable shift in capital allocation from U.S. markets to emerging and non-U.S. markets, driven by geopolitical changes and a focus on security and resilience [1][4][39]. Group 1: Market Performance - Emerging markets and non-U.S. equities have outperformed the S&P 500 by 14.49 and 9.41 points respectively, particularly due to significant U.S. dollar depreciation [2][4]. - As of early 2026, emerging markets and non-U.S. stocks have reached new highs, while the S&P 500 has stagnated, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4][6]. - Sectors such as materials, energy, and industrials have shown strong performance, while information technology has been relatively weak [1][4]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Framework - The article discusses the "Trump Reset," which aims to realign financial capital with industrial assets through fiscal leadership and financial repression, resulting in a long-term global capital rebalancing [1][8]. - Historical trends indicate that U.S. wealth inequality has increased significantly since the 1980s, exacerbated by policies that favored financialization over industrial growth [8][11]. - The U.S. government has entered a phase of fiscal dominance, where monetary policy is increasingly aligned with fiscal objectives to manage debt pressures and stimulate manufacturing [16][17]. Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Themes - A strategic judgment suggests a trend of U.S. dollar depreciation, particularly against tangible assets, with a strong focus on commodities amid rising geopolitical tensions and de-globalization [23][24]. - The U.S. economic cycle is expected to shift towards investment-driven growth rather than consumption, leading to a "K-shaped" economic recovery where investment flourishes while consumer spending remains subdued [26][28]. - Non-U.S. markets, especially China, are anticipated to attract more global capital due to their underallocation in comparison to U.S. equities, driven by advancements in technology and manufacturing capabilities [39][41].