大宗商品向上趋势没完！洪灏年度展望大谈周期，直言应该做些防御性的结构轮动……

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor cycle has reached its peak, indicating limited upward potential for the S&P 500. Global liquidity is at a regional high and is likely to retreat. The rebound in commodities has not yet reached its halfway point, and the upward trend remains intact. Growth stocks are currently outperforming, particularly in the Hong Kong and A-share markets, with more room for downward adjustments than upward. Investors should refocus on value stocks in the A-share market [2][4][82]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The global market is at the intersection of long and short cycles, influenced by geopolitical risks, liquidity turning points, and cyclical peaks, which will dominate asset pricing throughout the year [2]. - The U.S. semiconductor cycle has clearly peaked, which is highly correlated with the S&P 500's performance. As the semiconductor cycle approaches its peak, the major U.S. indices have stopped reaching new highs, indicating a depletion of price momentum [19][24]. - Global liquidity indicators suggest that liquidity is nearing a peak and will soon decline, which could negatively impact risk assets [3][38]. Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - The bull market for commodities is not over, with liquidity leading metal prices by about six months. Geopolitical conflicts are providing rigid support for material demand, suggesting that oil and industrial metals still have upward potential [4][62]. - Gold, as a core safe-haven asset, has risen alongside U.S. stocks, signaling potential volatility ahead [5][43]. - The current market conditions indicate that the upward trend in commodity prices has not yet reached its peak, with significant support from geopolitical tensions and material demand [66]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - In the current environment of tightening liquidity and cyclical peaks, a defensive structural rotation is recommended. Investors should focus on capturing certainty during volatility and wait for clearer signals before making aggressive investments [6][73]. - The A-share market is showing better resilience compared to the Hong Kong market, which is facing more significant challenges due to external geopolitical conflicts [75][84]. - The banking sector is expected to outperform the market, as historical patterns suggest that banks tend to recover after reaching low relative performance levels [80]. Group 4: Economic Cycles - The Chinese economic cycle is closely linked to the U.S. semiconductor cycle, with both markets experiencing significant resistance as they approach cyclical peaks [75][78]. - Historical data indicates that the Hang Seng Index's performance is highly correlated with the economic cycle, suggesting that further economic slowdown could present better buying opportunities in the future [84][85]. - The current economic cycle in China is likely to begin its decline from a high point, despite potential policy measures to extend the cycle [85][86].