【申万固收|信用周报】收益率多上行但利差分化，5年以内普信相对抗跌——信用债市场周度跟踪（20260223-20260301）

Group 1 - The net supply of ordinary credit bonds in the primary market decreased compared to the previous period, with no new issuances or maturities for perpetual bonds [3][6][12] - The total issuance and net financing of ordinary credit bonds for the period (2026.02.23-2026.03.01) were 952 billion yuan and -892 billion yuan, respectively, compared to 1390 billion yuan and 363 billion yuan in the previous period [3][6][12] - The issuance of industrial bonds decreased to 503 billion yuan, with net financing turning negative at -294 billion yuan, while local government bonds also saw a decline in issuance to 449 billion yuan, with net financing at -598 billion yuan [3][6][12] Group 2 - In the secondary market, yields generally increased, with credit spreads showing differentiation, where high-quality bonds outperformed perpetual bonds [3][6][12] - The yield on high-quality bonds mostly increased, while some lower-rated medium-term notes saw a decline in yield, with the 1Y AA- rated notes down by 4.7 basis points and 5Y AA rated notes down by 4.6 basis points [3][6][12] - The credit spreads for high-quality bonds narrowed, while most perpetual bonds experienced widening spreads, particularly the 7Y perpetual bonds which widened by 4.7, 4.6, and 3.7 basis points for AAA, AA+, and AA- rated bonds, respectively [3][6][12] Group 3 - The strategy suggests a cautious approach towards long-duration assets, focusing on short to medium-term credit bonds with higher certainty [3][6][12] - The demand for credit bonds is expected to be supported by stable but limited downward space in deposit rates, alongside expectations of wider credit and government bond supply pressures [3][6][12] - Investment opportunities include 2-year or shorter high-quality central state-owned enterprise real estate bonds, 3-year or shorter lower-rated local government bonds, and 3-5 year high-grade insurance subordinated bonds [3][6][12] Group 4 - The trading volume of credit bond ETFs is expected to stabilize around the Spring Festival, with potential demand for credit bond ETFs approaching the end of March, although to a lesser extent than the previous year [3][6][12] - The current credit spreads are at relatively low historical levels, indicating limited room for further compression, thus highlighting the importance of selecting bonds with good value [3][6][12] - For perpetual bonds, attention should be paid to the progress of approvals from the People's Bank of China in March and the potential for resuming issuances [3][6][12]