华尔街见闻·2026-03-05 02:53Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Tech Index has dropped 28% since its peak in October last year, resulting in a market value loss of nearly $600 billion, with major companies like Tencent and Alibaba being significantly affected. The ongoing AI subsidy war raises concerns about profit erosion and the uncertainty of which company will ultimately prevail in the competition [1]. Group 1: AI Subsidy War - During the Spring Festival holiday, ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu collectively spent approximately $1.1 billion on subsidies to compete for users [2]. - Goldman Sachs recently lowered Alibaba's target price, citing that the company's capital expenditures to secure AI leadership will exceed previous expectations before 2028 [3]. - The upcoming financial reports are critical, with Alibaba expected to see a 45% year-on-year decline in net profit for the quarter ending last December, while Tencent may face its slowest quarterly profit growth since 2023 [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The AI hype initiated by DeepSeek has faded, replaced by concerns similar to those faced by major U.S. cloud computing companies, including rising memory chip costs and potential impacts of AI on existing businesses [5]. - Lorraine Tan, Director of Asian Equity Research at Morningstar, notes that while AI spending in China remains reasonable, there are worries about resource wastage and low returns due to intense competition [5]. - Emerging Chinese AI companies have shown resilience to global market fluctuations, with stocks like MiniMax and Tupu Technology rising over 280% since their listings this year [5]. - Bo Ning from China Merchants Securities describes a clear "see-saw" effect between traditional internet giants and emerging AI firms, while market sentiment remains cautious, awaiting clearer AI strategies from companies like Tencent and Alibaba [5]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 17 times based on forward earnings forecasts, below the five-year average of about 22 times, suggesting potential buying opportunities for undervalued large tech stocks [6]. - However, many investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach, with concerns about user retention if subsidies cease, indicating significant uncertainty in determining the eventual winners in the market [6].