“两会”精神学习 | 区间目标的双重内涵（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes a flexible economic growth target of "4.5%-5%" for 2026, allowing room for structural adjustments, risk prevention, and reform promotion, with a focus on "reform" and "innovation" as key themes for economic development [2][13]. Economic Goals - The GDP growth target for the 14th Five-Year Plan aims to maintain a reasonable range, with a long-term goal of doubling per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 levels. R&D investment is set to maintain an annual growth rate of over 7%, and the digital economy's core industry value is expected to account for 12.5% of GDP. Additionally, a 17% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP is targeted [3][14]. Policy Direction - The report stresses the need for both policy support and reform efforts to address economic circulation issues. It highlights the importance of using reforms to convert policy effects into endogenous growth momentum, with a focus on unified market construction, fiscal and financial reforms, and institutional openness [4][15]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy maintains a "more proactive" tone, with a proposed deficit rate of around 4% for 2026, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year. Plans include issuing 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds and 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support state-owned banks [4][15]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy continues to adopt a "moderately loose" stance, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. The report emphasizes the flexible use of various policy tools, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments, to support domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium enterprises [5][17]. Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand remains a top priority for the government, with a focus on enhancing service consumption and leveraging new infrastructure investments. Key measures include implementing urban and rural resident income increase plans and promoting service consumption quality improvement actions [6][17]. Industry Focus - The digital economy is elevated to "intelligent economy," with significant emphasis on new infrastructure projects like large-scale computing clusters and energy collaboration. The establishment of a national low-carbon transition fund is proposed, focusing on hydrogen energy and green fuels, while also accelerating the elimination of outdated production capacity [7][17].