国泰海通 · 宏观｜一图概览政府工作报告

Economic Indicators - The actual GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be between 4.5% and 5%, compared to approximately 5% in 2025 [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth is expected to remain at 2% for both 2026 and 2025 [2] Employment - The target for new urban employment in 2026 is set at over 12 million, consistent with the 2025 target [2] - The urban survey unemployment rate is projected to be around 5.5% for both years [2] Agricultural Production - The grain production target for 2026 is approximately 1.4 trillion jin, similar to the 2025 target of over 1.4 trillion jin [2] Environmental Protection - The goal for reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP is set at around 3.8% for 2026, compared to a 3% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP in 2025 [2] Fiscal Policy - The budget deficit rate is maintained at 4% for both years [2] - New local special bonds are projected at 4.4 trillion yuan for 2026, unchanged from 2025 [2] - Central budget investment is planned at 755 billion yuan for 2026, an increase from 735 billion yuan in 2025 [2] - General budget expenditure is expected to increase by approximately 1.27 trillion yuan in 2026, compared to an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025 [2] Monetary Policy - The approach to monetary policy will involve flexible and efficient use of tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The growth rate of M2 and social financing will align with economic growth and overall price level expectations [2] Real Estate Market - The focus will be on stabilizing the real estate market with targeted measures to control supply and reduce inventory [2] - Emphasis on improving housing quality and enhancing property services, alongside measures to prevent debt default risks [2] Modern Industrial Development - The strategy includes fostering new economic drivers, optimizing traditional industries, and promoting advanced manufacturing [2] - Key sectors highlighted for growth include integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, and digital economy [2] Consumer Spending - Initiatives to promote income growth among residents and support consumption through various financial measures are planned [2] - The government aims to enhance service consumption and improve consumer experiences through policy adjustments [2] Investment - Central budget investment is set at 755 billion yuan for 2026, with a focus on supporting infrastructure projects [2]