新能源占比40+%的德国，为什么比我们更少负电价？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of negative electricity prices in the European power market, particularly highlighting that the issue is not merely an excess of renewable energy but rather the flexibility of the system to adjust to supply and demand [2][3][29]. Summary by Sections Negative Electricity Prices in Europe - In 2025, many European markets, including France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain, are expected to see negative electricity prices, with the proportion of negative price hours reaching 6%, up from approximately 3-5% in 2024 [5]. - Spain experienced the largest year-on-year increase in negative price hours, doubling its occurrences, while France saw a 45% increase, and Germany and the Netherlands both experienced around a 25% increase [5]. Germany's Renewable Energy Contribution - In 2025, Germany's renewable energy contribution to public net electricity generation remains at 55.9%, with wind power contributing approximately 132 TWh and solar power about 87.5 TWh [9]. - The total renewable energy generation in Germany is projected to be around 278 TWh, with 256 TWh fed into the public grid [9]. Comparison with China's Shandong Province - Shandong Province in China is projected to have over 1,300 hours of negative electricity prices in 2025, representing about 15% of the total hours, significantly higher than Germany's 6.5% [15]. - In 2025, Shandong's non-fossil energy generation is expected to account for 32.3% of total generation, with wind and solar contributing approximately 24% [18]. System Flexibility and Regulation - The article emphasizes that the key issue lies in the system's ability to adjust, with Germany showcasing better system flexibility through various measures [3][29]. - Germany's regulatory framework has been adjusted to tighten subsidy conditions for renewable energy projects, reducing the threshold for subsidy loss during negative price hours [20][22]. Infrastructure and Market Integration - Germany is enhancing its transmission infrastructure to address structural mismatches between energy supply and demand, particularly through high-voltage direct current lines [24]. - The country is also expanding its electricity market integration across Europe, allowing for better supply-demand balancing through cross-border electricity trade [24]. Demand Response and Storage Solutions - Germany has developed a mature demand response market, allowing for flexible power consumption adjustments [26]. - The country is investing in energy storage systems, with a cumulative installed capacity of nearly 25 GWh by 2025, which helps stabilize the grid and manage supply fluctuations [27]. Conclusion - Germany's approach to managing negative electricity prices involves tightening subsidy signals, enhancing interconnectivity, and improving system flexibility and storage capabilities, providing a model for other countries, including China, to consider [29][30].