为长期动荡做准备，我们熟知的世界已经结束了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current historical transition characterized by extreme uncertainty, social upheaval, and unprecedented prosperity, as highlighted by Elon Musk's warning about the "supersonic tsunami" of technological change and geopolitical restructuring [4][5]. Group 1: Historical Echoes - The article draws parallels between the current geopolitical landscape and the events of 1898, particularly the U.S. expansionism following the Spanish-American War, emphasizing the moral justifications used for intervention [8][9]. - It introduces the concept of the "Meddler's Trap," suggesting that intervention often leads to deeper entanglements and misjudgments about national interests [10]. Group 2: Collapse of the Old Order - The article highlights the disintegration of the post-World War II order, with major powers reverting to sphere-of-influence politics, as noted by various scholars [12][13]. - It points out the lack of cooperation among major powers, which is critical for addressing global challenges such as pandemics and climate change [14]. Group 3: Energy and Technology - The analysis emphasizes the importance of energy in shaping power dynamics, noting that countries pursuing green energy technologies are emerging as leaders in the new order [17][18]. - It cites Elon Musk's observation that energy supply will be crucial for AI development, with China leading in solar energy production [19]. Group 4: The Global South - The article discusses the evolving role of the Global South, where countries are increasingly signing bilateral trade agreements and adopting green technologies despite pressures from superpowers [22][24]. - It highlights a shift in strategy among middle powers, focusing on hedging rather than forming alliances, to retain autonomy in international relations [25]. Group 5: Weaponization of Interdependence - The article notes that interdependence is being weaponized, with supply chains and resources becoming tools for exerting pressure [26][27]. - It emphasizes that countries rich in resources are learning to leverage their assets in this new geopolitical context [27]. Group 6: Era of Extreme Uncertainty - The article defines the current era as one of "radical uncertainty," where the collapse of old systems leads to unpredictable outcomes [28][29]. - It warns of potential conflicts arising from the struggle for exclusive spheres of influence, with smaller nations seeking protection from larger powers [30]. Group 7: Future Shape - The article suggests that the future world order will be more chaotic and less hierarchical, shaped by both major powers and smaller nations [31][32]. - It concludes that the transition to a new order will not be orderly, and the lessons from history are crucial for navigating this uncertain landscape [33].