区间目标的双重内涵——2026全国“两会”精神学习（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core economic growth target for 2026 is set in a range of "4.5%-5%", allowing space for structural adjustments, risk prevention, and reform promotion. The emphasis on "reform" and "innovation" indicates a focus on institutional reform and innovative development in the coming years [2][13] - The report highlights the importance of a unified national market, fiscal and financial reforms, and green low-carbon transitions, which are expected to accelerate in 2026. Key areas of focus include employment support and consumer spending as new growth points [2][13] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for a GDP growth rate that maintains a reasonable range, with a long-term goal of doubling per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 levels. R&D investment is targeted to maintain an annual growth rate of over 7%, and the digital economy's core industries are expected to account for 12.5% of GDP [3][14] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the need for both policy support and reform efforts to address economic circulation bottlenecks. It aims to convert policy effects into endogenous growth momentum through reforms [4][15] - Fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with a proposed deficit rate of around 4% for 2026, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year. Special bonds are planned to support state-owned banks and local governments [4][15] - Monetary policy continues to adopt a "moderately loose" stance, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. The report encourages the use of various policy tools to support domestic demand and innovation [5][17] Group 3 - Expanding domestic demand remains the top priority for the government for the second consecutive year, with a focus on releasing service consumption potential and leveraging new infrastructure investments. Measures include a plan for urban and rural residents' income growth and new financial tools to support infrastructure [6][17] - The digital economy is elevated to "intelligent economy," with significant investments in new infrastructure projects like large-scale computing clusters and energy-efficient systems. The establishment of a national low-carbon transition fund is also highlighted [7][17] - The report outlines the need for a comprehensive approach to low-carbon transitions, including the elimination of outdated production capacity and the promotion of green technology upgrades [7][17]