中东局势动荡不安，继续关注能化板块投资机会：申万期货早间评论-20260306

Core Viewpoint - The government work report outlines the main expected targets for development in 2026, including an economic growth rate of 4.5%-5%, an urban survey unemployment rate of around 5.5%, and a consumer price increase of about 2% [1] Economic Policy - The proposed fiscal deficit rate for this year is around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year [1] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan to support infrastructure and new development projects [1] Commodity Market Overview - In the futures market, domestic commodity futures showed mixed results, with significant increases in crude oil, caustic soda, and pure benzene, while silver, aluminum, and gold experienced notable declines [1] Key Commodities Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose by 1.25% due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, including attacks by Israel and the U.S. and retaliatory strikes by Iran, affecting oil transport routes [2][10] - Iraq has reduced its daily oil production by nearly 1.5 million barrels, with potential for further cuts due to storage capacity issues [2][10] Methanol - Methanol prices fell by 1.39%, with domestic coal-to-olefins (CTO) operating rates decreasing to 78.14%, influenced by maintenance at certain facilities [3][11] - Coastal methanol inventories reached 1.4133 million tons, up 1.04% from the previous period and 35.76% year-on-year [3][11] Financial Market Insights Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices declined, with a market turnover of 2.41 trillion yuan, indicating a shift from expectation-driven to earnings-driven market dynamics [9] - The focus is on sectors with strong earnings certainty, while speculative stocks may continue to struggle [9] Government Bonds - The yield on 10-year government bonds fell to 1.79%, supported by a net liquidity injection from the central bank [10] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to bolster demand for government bonds as a safe haven [10] Industry News - The upcoming National People's Congress is set to emphasize expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, with a focus on technological innovation and support for the private economy [6][7]