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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the military actions involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran, which have led to significant volatility in global financial markets and a surge in risk aversion [1][3]. Market Reactions - Following the military actions, global markets experienced sharp fluctuations, with funds rapidly flowing into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, oil, and the U.S. dollar. Oil prices and gold prices surged, while major global stock indices faced selling pressure [3][4]. - The Brent crude oil futures closed up approximately 6.7%, nearing $78 per barrel, marking the largest single-day increase since June 2025. WTI crude oil futures rose by 6.28% to $71.23 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of about 14.34% over three trading days [4]. Geopolitical Risks - Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil transport, have heightened market concerns. The Strait accounts for over 20% of global oil transportation, and any disruption could significantly impact the global oil supply chain [3][4]. - Analysts predict that if Iran enforces a blockade, oil prices may enter a phase of "irrational" increases driven by geopolitical fears and supply disruption expectations, with core trading variables focusing on Iran's retaliatory actions and the status of the Strait [4][5]. Future Oil Price Predictions - Market sentiment suggests that if the conflict remains limited to military targets without substantial supply disruptions, oil prices may fluctuate between $80 and $100 per barrel, with daily volatility potentially reaching 5% to 10%. Conversely, if a ceasefire is reached, prices could drop to the $70 to $80 range [5]. - Looking ahead, the international oil price may stabilize around $80, with potential for wide fluctuations. If the Middle East conflict escalates, previously projected oversupply could quickly shift to a tight balance or even shortages, leading to a structural characteristic of "easy to rise, hard to fall" in oil prices [5][6]. U.S. Government Response - In response to rising oil prices, the U.S. government is signaling potential policy measures to stabilize oil prices, aiming to mitigate the impact of rapid price increases on the domestic economy [6].