国泰海通｜交运：件量延续高增态势，价格进入企稳通道——2026年快递行业春季策略

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resilience of the express delivery industry, with a projected business volume of 198.95 billion pieces by December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.6% [1] - The trend of small parcelization continues, with expectations for steady growth in business volume in 2026, particularly in the first half of the year, despite a potential decline in single-piece revenue [1] - The "anti-involution" policies are being implemented, leading to a stabilization of prices in the express delivery sector, with the average revenue per piece at 7.51 yuan in 2025, down 6.3% year-on-year, but showing signs of recovery [1] Group 2 - The diminishing scale effect under the trend of small parcelization is noted, with core costs per piece expected to decline at a slower pace; however, the introduction of unmanned vehicles and new energy vehicles is anticipated to reduce delivery and energy costs [1] - The report suggests that the anti-involution trend has spread nationwide, significantly improving single-piece revenue for companies and indicating a potential recovery in profitability for e-commerce express delivery firms in 2026, contingent on the sustainability of price increases [2]