国泰海通｜石化：美伊局势升级，2月国际油价持续上涨

Core Viewpoint - Since February 2026, international oil prices have shown strong performance, with Brent crude closing at $70.85 per barrel on February 26, 2026, up 6.86% from early February, primarily due to increased military activities between the US and Iran, raising market concerns about escalating tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - The rise in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical factors, particularly the military buildup by both the US and Iran, which has led to market apprehension regarding the situation [1]. - OPEC+ decided to maintain its production levels in the first quarter of 2026, with a potential resumption of "slight production increases" in April [1]. Group 2: Non-OPEC+ Supply - Non-OPEC+ countries are expected to provide an annual supply increase of approximately 600,000 to 1 million barrels per day from 2026 to 2027, primarily driven by the Americas, including the US, Brazil, and Canada [2]. - According to OPEC+ monthly reports, the expected production growth for non-OPEC+ countries is 630,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 610,000 barrels per day in 2027 [2]. Group 3: Global Oil Demand and Inventory - Global oil demand is projected to increase, with OPEC+, EIA, and IEA forecasting year-on-year growth of 1.143 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.32 million barrels per day in 2027 [2]. - Global oil inventories are currently at near five-year lows, driven by demand recovery and OPEC+ production cuts, with the US planning to replenish its strategic reserves [3].