【基础化工】供给配额约束叠加需求稳步提升，三代制冷剂有望维持高景气——制冷剂行业动态跟踪（赵乃迪/王礼沫）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of environmental policies on the refrigerant industry, particularly focusing on the transition from HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons) due to regulatory frameworks like the Montreal Protocol and the Kigali Amendment, which impose strict quotas and timelines for phasing out these substances [4][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework and Supply Constraints - The refrigerant industry has evolved through four generations, with the first generation already phased out globally and developed countries having eliminated the second generation. Developing countries began the phase-out process in 2015, and the third generation (HFCs) is now in the early stages of elimination [4]. - Starting in 2024, China will enter a quota system for HFCs, with production quotas set at 748,500 tons, 791,900 tons, and 797,800 tons for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively. The internal production quotas are 342,300 tons, 389,600 tons, and 394,100 tons for the same years, indicating a stable total production quota for HFCs [4]. - The supply constraints for HFCs are expected to persist, with a strong likelihood of continued restrictions on production due to the quotas established under the Montreal Protocol, which will begin reducing HFC usage in 2029 [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - Since the implementation of HFC quotas in 2024, the prices of third-generation refrigerants have risen significantly, with price differences for R32, R125, and R134a increasing by 79%, 37%, and 51%, respectively, by the end of 2025 compared to the end of 2024 [5]. - The domestic HFC market is expected to maintain high price levels, with inventory levels dropping to historical lows by Q1 2025, following a rapid consumption of high inventory levels. This low inventory environment is anticipated to support the continued high demand for mainstream HFC products like R32 [5]. Group 3: Demand Growth and Replacement Needs - The demand for refrigerants is projected to improve steadily, with downstream demand for R32, R125, and R134a expected to reach 100%, 70%, and 72% respectively by 2025. The production of air conditioners and automobiles in China has remained stable, contributing to this demand [6]. - Government subsidies and consumption-boosting policies are expected to stimulate sales of air conditioners and automobiles, further driving the demand for refrigerants [6]. - The production quota for R22, a second-generation refrigerant, has been reduced from 274,000 tons in 2018 to 146,000 tons by 2026, with stricter limits anticipated from 2027 to 2030, which will likely create additional demand for third-generation refrigerants as replacements [7].