2月全球投资十大主线

Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of global asset classes in February 2026 ranked as follows: commodities (2.13%) > global stocks (1.59%) > RMB (1.38%) > global bonds (1.12%) > USD (0.64%) > 0% [2] Group 1: Global Asset Overview - Concerns over geopolitical risks between the US and Iran have heightened risk aversion in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index facing significant resistance at the 7000-point level. The market is exhibiting extreme defensive characteristics, with a notable shift of funds from high-elasticity cyclical sectors to defensive sectors since January 2026 [4] - The relative valuation of US stocks has fallen to a decade-low, with the S&P 500 equal-weight index's price-to-earnings ratio compared to global (excluding the US) markets dropping to 1.11, indicating a significant reduction in the valuation premium of US stocks [19] - A significant divergence in pricing between US stocks and bonds for technology and industrial sectors has emerged, with the credit spread between industrial and technology sectors reaching a historical low of -22 basis points, indicating a reversal in credit confidence towards the technology sector [22] Group 2: Fund Manager Positioning - Global fund managers are experiencing a "non-US" and "cyclical" adjustment in their positions, with the net overweight ratio for emerging markets rising to 49%, the highest level since February 2021. This reflects a significant return of funds to emerging markets at a pace not seen in five years [25] Group 3: Currency and Trade Dynamics - Following the US Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's "emergency" tariffs, the dollar weakened. The ruling led to a decrease in supply chain costs and improved corporate earnings expectations, with the dollar index and VIX index falling by 0.10% and 5.64%, respectively, on February 20 [30] - The Bank of China has reduced the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange transactions from 20% to zero, aiming to curb the rapid appreciation of the RMB and guide the USD/RMB exchange rate back to 6.86 [51] Group 4: International Investment Trends - Overseas investors are actively engaging in a "flattening" strategy for Japanese government bonds, driven by expectations of reduced long-term bond supply starting in April. This strategy allows USD investors to lock in approximately 6% total returns, composed of a 4% coupon and 2% from currency hedging [35] - The yen's status as a global safe-haven asset is closely related to changes in Japan's international balance of payments, with a significant shift occurring in 2005 when overseas investment income began to surpass trade surpluses [38] Group 5: Market Divergence - There is a notable divergence between the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Korean KOSPI Index, with the former experiencing a 10.15% drop in February, entering a technical bear market, while the KOSPI surged past 6000 points, driven by enthusiasm for semiconductors and AI hardware, reflecting a shift in capital flows [43] - The UK stock market has shown a high degree of correlation with global resource stocks over the past decade, particularly since late 2024, as the UK index has a high weight in energy and materials sectors, making it a mirror of global resource pricing [48]