全球市场回调何时结束？“1970年代”滞胀剧本会重演吗？

Core Viewpoint - The global market is undergoing an adjustment triggered by external shocks, raising concerns about when this correction will bottom out and whether the current macro environment is reminiscent of the stagflation nightmare of the 1970s [1] Group 1: Market Adjustment and Conditions - Bank of America Merrill Lynch's latest report indicates that signals for the end of the correction are emerging, but not fully in place; the 2020s are more likely to trend towards inflationary prosperity rather than stagflation collapse, provided geopolitical tensions do not worsen [2] - The current market correction is triggered by external shocks combined with excessive optimism; some "oversold" assets are showing signs of bottoming out, but oil prices and the dollar have not yet provided comprehensive reversal signals [3] - The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Bull-Bear Indicator remains high at 9.2, indicating extreme bullish sentiment, which limits the potential for a rebound [4] Group 2: Investment Trends and Signals - Nvidia's announcement to retract its previously planned $100 billion investment in OpenAI signals a potential slowdown in AI capital expenditure growth, which could significantly impact the tech bond and software sectors [5][14] - The market correction is expected to end when four conditions are met; currently, two conditions are partially fulfilled: "oversold" assets are showing signs of bottoming, and "overbought" assets are being sold off [6] - Recent fund flow data shows significant movements: gold experienced its largest weekly outflow since October 2025 ($1.8 billion), while the energy sector saw its largest inflow ever ($7 billion) [6] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The 2020s may not fully replicate the 1970s stagflation scenario, but the historical context is relevant; key variables include the geopolitical situation in Iran, which could influence oil prices and overall market dynamics [8][12] - Factors supporting inflationary prosperity include political populism, reversal of globalization, excessive fiscal expansion, and a "too big to fail" stock market leading to asset inflation [9][10] - Historical asset performance during the 1970s shows that commodities and gold consistently outperformed stocks and bonds during stagflation periods, a trend that is already reflected in current market movements [13] Group 4: Software Sector and Market Stability - The software ETF's peak coincided with Nvidia's investment announcement, and its retraction may signal a slowdown in AI capital expenditure, which could catalyze a reversal in tech bond trading [14][15] - The stability of the software sector is crucial as it is highly correlated with private credit and bank loans; recent outflows from bank loan funds indicate potential stress in this area [15] - The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Bull-Bear Indicator remains in the extreme bullish zone, suggesting that emerging markets, European stocks, and bank stocks are in a state of severe over-allocation, posing significant selling pressure if the market declines further [16]