发达国家长端利率普遍上行——全球经济观察2026年第3期【陈兴团队•华福宏观】

Global Asset Price Performance - Long-term interest rates are generally rising, with major global stock markets experiencing declines; the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices fell by 2%, 3%, and 1.2% respectively [2] - In the bond market, yields in major overseas markets are mostly up, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising by 18 basis points compared to last week [2] - Commodity prices are affected by the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices increasing significantly by 24.2% and 20.6% respectively; meanwhile, gold and copper prices fell by 2% and 4.7% [2] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.3%, while the offshore RMB depreciated by 0.3% against the U.S. dollar [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Kevin Warsh has been officially nominated by President Trump to replace Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair, seen as a "dovish" candidate, which may lead to more accommodative monetary policy if confirmed [4] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June have decreased to 32.6%, down from 57.3% a week prior [4] - The European Central Bank (ECB) reiterated its commitment to a 2% inflation target and a data-dependent approach to monetary policy [4] - The Bank of Japan is reportedly continuing its rate normalization efforts, with low expectations for a rate hike in March but some possibility for April [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The ISM services index for February surged to 56.1%, the highest since mid-2022, with new orders rising to 58.6% [9] - Non-farm payrolls showed a decline of 92,000 jobs in February, significantly below the expected increase of 55,000, marking the largest drop since November 2025 [9] - The private sector also saw a decline in job creation, with an average of 41,000 new jobs over the past three months, well below the previous average of 94,000 [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone inflation risks are increasing, with February inflation rising by 1.9% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, driven by a 3.4% increase in service sector inflation [21] - The ongoing conflict in Iran has led to an 85% weekly increase in natural gas prices, exacerbating energy crisis concerns [21] - South Korea's stock market experienced a significant drop of 12.11% on March 4, the largest single-day decline since the 9/11 attacks, due to concerns over energy dependence and inflation [21] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index also faced substantial pressure, dropping over 3,000 points in a week, as rising oil prices threaten to increase domestic inflation [21]