每周推荐 | “两会”精神学习：区间目标的双重内涵（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the dual connotation of the interval target set for economic policy, which aims to provide space for structural adjustment, risk prevention, and reform promotion, with a GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026 [2][34]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Reform - The core policy direction is to address economic circulation bottlenecks through reform, with fiscal policy maintaining a "more proactive" stance and monetary policy remaining "appropriately loose" [3][34]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand has been prioritized for two consecutive years, emphasizing the release of service consumption and the role of new infrastructure in driving growth [4][34]. Group 2: Two Sessions Insights - The article discusses the significance of the "Two Sessions" in shaping economic policy, highlighting the need for a proactive approach to macroeconomic policy and the importance of structural reforms [9][34]. - It outlines the government's work report, which includes a commitment to maintaining a reasonable GDP growth range and enhancing the effectiveness of fiscal policies, with a proposed budget deficit rate of around 4% for the year [34][34]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Economic Indicators - The article notes a shift in consumer behavior, suggesting that the recent surge in travel demand during the Spring Festival may indicate a fundamental change in consumption patterns [17][21]. - It also provides insights into the recent decline in PMI, with manufacturing PMI at 49% and non-manufacturing PMI at 49.5%, indicating potential challenges in the economic recovery [26][34].