【宏观】天气与罢工扰动并存，驱动就业数据回落——2026年2月美国非农数据点评（赵格格/周欣平）

Core Viewpoint - The February non-farm payroll data significantly underperformed expectations, primarily due to temporary disruptions from a healthcare sector strike and adverse weather conditions [5][6]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data - In February 2026, the U.S. Labor Department reported a non-farm employment increase of 92,000, below the expected 59,000, with the previous value revised down from 130,000 to 126,000 [4]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, while average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% [4]. Group 2: Employment Sector Performance - The healthcare sector saw a loss of 19,000 jobs in February, significantly lower than the previous gain of 116,000, primarily due to the impact of a strike [6]. - Other sectors such as construction (-11,000), leisure and hospitality (-27,000), and transportation and warehousing (-11,000) also showed weak employment performance due to the winter storm affecting the Northeast [6]. Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.0%, down from 62.1%, indicating a decrease in employment willingness among the middle-aged demographic [7]. - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 209,000, contributing to the rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.4%. Temporary unemployment rose by 79,000, reflecting reduced hiring demand, while permanent unemployment showed little change [7]. Group 4: Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve faces a trade-off between stagnation and inflation, with short-term interest rate cuts remaining uncertain. However, continued deterioration in the job market could influence the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [8]. - Following the non-farm data release, market expectations indicated a 42.3% probability of a rate cut in September 2026, with a 95.5% probability of no rate cut in March 2026 [8].