潘功胜：无意通过汇率贬值获取贸易竞争优势｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth and financial stability, while gradually shifting focus from quantity-based to price-based monetary policy tools [4][5][8]. Monetary Policy Considerations - Since 2025, the PBOC has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, introducing various measures to support stable growth and financial market stability, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates and a 1 trillion yuan special relending for private enterprises [4][5]. - As of January 2026, social financing scale increased by 8.2% year-on-year, and broad money (M2) grew by 9%, with new corporate and personal housing loan rates at historical lows of approximately 3.2% and 3.1% respectively [5][6]. Structural Adjustments - The PBOC plans to focus structural monetary policy tools on expanding domestic demand, supporting technological innovation, and aiding small and micro enterprises, with structural tools amounting to approximately 5.5 trillion yuan, representing about 11% of the central bank's total assets [6][8]. Exchange Rate Management - The PBOC maintains that there is no intention to devalue the yuan for trade advantages, emphasizing the importance of market forces in exchange rate determination and the need for stability in the yuan's value [7][8]. - The yuan appreciated against the US dollar by nearly 4.5% in 2025, reflecting a stable position among major currencies [10]. Financial Risk Management - The PBOC reports that financial institutions are generally healthy, with a capital adequacy ratio of 15.5% and a non-performing loan ratio of 1.5% as of the end of last year, indicating strong risk resilience [10][11]. - The PBOC aims to balance economic growth and risk prevention, focusing on resolving key financial risks, particularly in financing platforms and small banks, while maintaining a crackdown on illegal financial activities [11][12]. Financial Market Stability - The PBOC will continue to monitor and manage the bond and capital markets to ensure stability, with a focus on maintaining low financing costs for enterprises and supporting the capital market's resilience [11][12]. Financial Sector Opening - Since 2025, the PBOC has made significant progress in financial sector opening, including enhancing foreign investment access and promoting the internationalization of the yuan, with over 10 trillion yuan in domestic RMB financial assets held by foreign entities [13][14]. - The PBOC is committed to further expanding high-level financial openness, enhancing transparency and predictability in financial policies, and supporting the development of offshore RMB markets [15][16].