张瑜：中国地产“脱敏”三步曲

Core Viewpoint - The process of "desensitization" in the real estate sector is gradual and layered, expected to follow a sequence of "first the stock market, then consumption, and finally investment" [2] Group 1: Stock Market Desensitization - The stock market has likely completed its initial desensitization to real estate, with the impact of real estate sector fluctuations on overall A-share sentiment and performance significantly weakened [4][7] - Real estate's share of A-share profits has dropped to less than 1%, with "narrow real estate" profits accounting for only 0.5% of A-share profits in the first three quarters of 2025, down from 4.2% in 2021 [4][18] - The valuation impact of real estate downturns is no longer a "hard constraint" for residents participating in the stock market, as liquidity has improved, leading to increased stock market activity [5][21] - The volatility of real estate stocks has decreased significantly, with the downward volatility rate reaching historical lows, indicating a market that has adjusted its expectations regarding the real estate sector [6][23] - The allocation of equity funds to real estate has fallen to approximately 0.4%, marking the lowest level since 2005 [6][27] Group 2: Consumption Desensitization - The three major effects of real estate on consumption—wealth effect, income effect, and crowding-out effect—are weakening [8][34] - The wealth effect is diminishing as the gap between financial assets and housing assets narrows, with financial assets expected to surpass housing assets by 2026 [9][34] - The income effect is also weakening, as the real estate sector undergoes a "volume reduction and price maintenance" phase, leading to improved per capita wages for remaining employees [10][35] - The crowding-out effect appears to be fading, as the proportion of household income spent on new home purchases has decreased from 23% in 2021 to 9% in 2025, yet consumer spending has not increased correspondingly [11][36] - Key indicators suggest that consumption is gradually desensitizing from real estate influences, with essential retail sales maintaining stability despite real estate adjustments [11][43] Group 3: Investment Desensitization - The drag of real estate on investment remains significant, with the real estate chain's investment declining and contributing to a projected -3.8% growth in fixed asset investment for 2025 [13][48] - The contraction of land finance is expected to impact local government-led infrastructure investments, with a forecasted -6.1% growth in related sectors for 2025 [13][48] - Looking ahead, the real estate sector is likely to continue exerting pressure on investment due to demographic shifts and a declining demand for new housing, with expectations of double-digit declines in real estate investment in 2026 [13][52][54]