【策略周报】中东硝烟未散，两会定调落地

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic indicators and government policy directions in China, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions and domestic economic strategies on market performance. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In February, China's manufacturing PMI recorded 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from January, attributed to seasonal fluctuations due to the late timing of the Spring Festival [2] - The new export orders index fell by 2.8 percentage points to 45.0%, indicating a potential marginal weakening in external demand [2] - The service sector PMI rose to 49.7 in February, still below the same period last year [2] Group 2: Government Work Report - The 2026 government work report sets economic growth targets at 4.5% to 5% and aims for a consumer price increase of around 2% [3] - The report emphasizes a pragmatic policy approach focusing on high-quality development, with monetary policy remaining moderately accommodative and fiscal policy being more proactive [3] - The fiscal deficit is planned at approximately 4%, with a total deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, including the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds [3] Group 3: Key Tasks from Government Work Report - The report outlines ten key tasks, including building a strong domestic market, fostering new growth drivers, enhancing technological self-reliance, and promoting rural revitalization [3] Group 4: Market Reactions - The bond market has shown signs of recovery, with expectations of a potential reserve requirement ratio cut to alleviate MLF maturity pressures [6] - A-share market experienced significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which heightened global market risk aversion [7]