数据点评 | 就业下降是“临时的”——2026年2月美国就业数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Overview - In February, the US non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, indicating a sudden cooling in employment data [2][6] - The private sector hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of 0.3% [2][9] - The labor force participation rate stood at 62%, slightly down from the previous value of 62.1% [2][6] Structure - The decline in non-farm employment in February was primarily attributed to temporary factors such as medical strikes and severe winter storms, with 9 out of 14 major sectors experiencing job losses [3][11] - The most significant job losses were in the service sector, particularly in education and health services, which saw a reduction of 34,000 jobs, with 28,000 of those from the healthcare sector due to temporary impacts from medical strikes [3][13] - The unemployment rate's increase to 4.4% and the slight decline in labor force participation were relatively moderate, suggesting that temporary layoffs had some impact on the unemployment figures [18] Outlook - The employment downturn in February is likely to be temporary, with the job market expected to continue in a "low growth, weak balance" state [4][23] - Other recent employment data, such as ADP employment and ISM manufacturing PMI, have been stronger than expected, indicating that the overall employment situation may not be as weak as the February data suggests [4][23] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach in light of high oil prices and weak employment, with market expectations for a potential rate cut only once in September [4][29]