中金 | 石油：美伊冲击扩散，上调油价预测

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has significantly impacted oil and gas facilities in Iran and surrounding Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, leading to a potential reversal of the previously expected oil surplus and an increase in oil prices [2][4]. Group 1: Supply Disruption - The conflict has resulted in damage to multiple oil and gas facilities, with Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery losing approximately 550,000 barrels per day and Bahrain's Sitrah refinery losing about 448,000 barrels per day [4][5]. - The IEA estimates that the total refining capacity in the Middle East will be around 12 million barrels per day by 2025, accounting for about 11% of global capacity, with current refinery capacity losses reaching approximately 20% [4][5]. - Qatar's Ras Laffan energy facility has also been attacked, leading to a suspension of LNG production, which is critical as Qatar is expected to account for nearly 20% of global LNG exports by 2025 [4][5]. Group 2: Oil Price Forecast - The report suggests that the short-term oil price increase could be in the range of $10-15 per barrel, with Brent crude oil prices expected to trade between $80-85 per barrel [5][22]. - If the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues, Brent crude oil prices could rise to over $120 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, leading to significant consumption of commercial oil inventories [22][30]. - The baseline scenario assumes that the disruption will not last long, with Brent crude oil price forecasts adjusted to $75, $80, $75, and $72.5 per barrel for the first to fourth quarters of the year [22][30]. Group 3: Impact on Global Supply - The reliance of Middle Eastern oil-producing countries on the Strait of Hormuz is significant, with Iran being 100% dependent, and Saudi Arabia and Iraq around 90% dependent [12][21]. - Countries like Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have already announced production cuts due to storage capacity constraints and export disruptions, indicating a rising risk of global oil supply shortages [12][21]. - The OECD commercial oil inventories are at historically low levels and may face unexpected consumption risks, potentially mirroring the inventory accumulation seen during the early pandemic [12][22].