【招银研究】伊朗局势持续超预期，国内增长目标迎调整——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2026.03.09-03.13）

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Employment Data - The U.S. employment data for February showed a significant decline, with a surprising increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, and a loss of 92,000 jobs, primarily due to temporary factors such as weather and strikes [2] - The labor department estimated that 228,000 workers were unable to work due to weather conditions, which is 61,000 more than in February 2025 [2] - The market is shifting from risk aversion due to the U.S.-Iran conflict to concerns over tightening liquidity, leading to a rebound in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, while gold and the Chinese yuan have declined [3] Group 2: Global Oil Supply and Geopolitical Risks - The situation in Iran continues to exceed expectations, with the potential for a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply [1] - Despite significant airstrikes on Iran's military industry, its missile and drone supply chains remain intact, indicating a sustained operational capability [1] - The geopolitical tensions are expected to elevate global stagflation risks, with the potential for U.S. inflation concerns to diminish the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][14] Group 3: Chinese Economic Growth and Policy Adjustments - China's economic growth target for 2026 has been adjusted to a range of 4.5%-5.0%, down from the previous target of around 5%, reflecting a more flexible approach to external uncertainties [7] - The focus of macroeconomic policy is shifting towards enhancing policy effectiveness through structural reforms and balancing speed with quality in economic growth [8] - The government aims to support domestic consumption and promote structural transformation in the economy, with an emphasis on improving the efficiency of macroeconomic regulation [8] Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a shift in investment preferences, moving from technology giants to non-tech sectors and smaller-cap stocks, as concerns over inflation and capital expenditures grow [3] - Investment strategies should focus on cyclical sectors, traditional energy, and key metals related to military and technology, as geopolitical tensions reinforce supply-side dynamics [16] - Defensive assets, particularly dividend-paying stocks, are recommended as a stable long-term investment choice amid current market volatility [16]