【广发宏观郭磊】通胀上行继续加快

Core Viewpoint - Inflation is accelerating, with February CPI year-on-year at 1.3%, up from 0.2% previously, and PPI year-on-year at -0.9%, up from -1.4% previously. The simulated deflation index based on CPI and PPI weights is 0.42%, marking the first positive reading in 36 months, one month earlier than expected [4][5]. Group 1: Inflation Trends - The inflation trend shows a significant turning point over the past three years, with the monthly simulated deflation index turning negative in March 2023 and reaching a low of -2.16% in June 2023. It is expected to recover gradually, approaching zero growth by July 2024, before facing downward pressure again due to real estate adjustments and concentrated capacity in the new energy sector [7]. - The CPI's month-on-month performance in February 2026 did not exceed seasonal expectations, with a general increase in service prices at 1.1%, indicating a seasonal effect from the Spring Festival [7][8]. Group 2: CPI Components - Key components of CPI include seasonal increases in travel-related expenses, gold jewelry prices rising by 6.2% due to international gold price influences, and a 2.8% increase in transportation energy prices, marking the first rise in seven months. However, household appliance prices fell by 1.1%, likely due to concentrated Spring Festival promotions [10][12][15]. - Pork prices increased by 4.0% month-on-month, but high-frequency data suggests this trend may not strengthen, as prices have begun to decline again since late February [16]. Group 3: PPI Insights - PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, marking the fifth consecutive month of positive growth. Increases were observed in mining, processing, durable consumer goods, and raw materials, while food prices remained stable and clothing prices declined [17][18]. - The rise in PPI is driven by sectors such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and the computer communication electronics industry, influenced by the AI revolution. However, coal and non-metal prices have seen rapid increases due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, despite February data showing a month-on-month decline [17][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - March inflation data is expected to remain favorable, with significant increases in oil prices and a continued upward trend in domestic industrial product prices. The broad fiscal policy is leaning towards stable investment, which will benefit the construction and industrial product prices [23][24]. - The Brent crude oil price rose from $72.5 per barrel at the end of February to $92.7 per barrel by March 6, indicating potential upward pressure on inflation [24].