数据点评 | 为何2月通胀“再超预期”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - February inflation "exceeded expectations" due to input factors and improvement in service consumption [2][67] - February PPI year-on-year "exceeded expectations" driven by rising international prices of non-ferrous metals and crude oil, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [2][67] - The increase in copper smelting prices is attributed to strong demand from AI-related industries, contributing significantly to PPI growth [2][67] PPI Analysis - February PPI year-on-year was -0.9%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [39] - The main contributors to the month-on-month PPI increase were non-ferrous metal smelting and international oil prices, with oil prices contributing 0.2% to the month-on-month PPI [2][67] - Low capacity utilization in downstream sectors continues to exert downward pressure on PPI, with specific industries like pharmaceuticals and food showing negative month-on-month PPI changes [11][67] CPI Analysis - February CPI showed a significant rebound, rising 1.1 percentage points to 1.3% year-on-year, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival [3][68] - Service CPI increased notably, with core service prices such as air tickets and transportation rentals rising significantly [3][68] - Food CPI showed weaker performance, with year-on-year growth of 1.7%, and specific categories like fresh vegetables and pork experiencing declines [25][68] Future Outlook - The company has revised its PPI and CPI year-on-year central estimates upward, anticipating that if international oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, PPI could return to around 0% in March and turn positive in April [4][69] - The annual PPI forecast has been adjusted to 0.2%, while the CPI central estimate is revised to approximately 0.8% [4][69] Regular Tracking - February CPI and PPI both showed year-on-year increases, with notable contributions from food prices, particularly eggs [70][44] - Non-food CPI categories such as transportation and communication also saw marginal increases [50][70] - Overall service CPI increased, with household services showing a significant rise [57][70]