数据点评 | 为何2月通胀“再超预期”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - February inflation "exceeded expectations" due to input factors and improvement in service consumption [2][67] - February PPI year-on-year "exceeded expectations" driven by rising international prices of non-ferrous metals and crude oil, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [2][67] - The increase in copper smelting prices is attributed to strong demand from AI-related industries, contributing significantly to PPI growth [2][67] PPI Analysis - February PPI year-on-year was -0.9%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [39] - The rise in PPI is primarily driven by non-ferrous metal prices, with copper smelting prices increasing by 3.7% month-on-month [67] - International oil prices also contributed to PPI growth, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [67] CPI Analysis - February CPI showed a significant rebound, rising 1.1 percentage points month-on-month to 1.3%, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival [3][68] - Service CPI increased by 1.1% month-on-month, outperforming previous years during the Spring Festival [3][68] - Core service CPI saw substantial increases in prices for air tickets, transportation rentals, travel agency fees, and accommodation [3][68] Food and Core Goods CPI - Food CPI increased by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year to 1.7%, but the month-on-month increase of 1.9% was below the previous year's performance [25][68] - Core goods CPI remained flat at -1.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% primarily influenced by gold prices [25][68] Future Outlook - The company has revised the PPI and CPI year-on-year central forecast upwards due to input factors and changes in service consumption [4][69] - If international oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, PPI may return to around 0% in March and turn positive in April, with an annual PPI forecast of 0.2% [4][69] - The annual CPI central forecast has been adjusted to approximately 0.8% due to oil price transmission and improvements in service consumption [4][69] Regular Tracking - February CPI and PPI both showed a year-on-year increase [70] - Significant price increases were noted in food items, particularly eggs, which rose by 6.3 percentage points [70] - Non-food CPI categories such as transportation and communication tools also saw marginal increases [70]