【宏观】国内物价缘何超预期上行？——2026年2月价格数据点评（赵格格/刘星辰）

Core Viewpoints - In February, influenced by the Spring Festival timing, expanded service demand, and rising international oil and gold prices, the CPI increased to 1.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose to 1.8%, reaching a recent high [5] - The PPI showed a narrowing decline due to rising prices of international non-ferrous metals and crude oil, driven by resource nationalism and the US-Iran conflict [5] CPI Analysis - The increase in CPI is supported by government initiatives aimed at boosting residents' income, cultivating consumption scenarios, implementing paid leave, and establishing special funds to promote domestic demand [5] - The recent strengthening of domestic pig production capacity control is expected to accelerate the reduction of pig production capacity, leading to a rebound in pork prices in the second half of the year [5] PPI Analysis - External price increases of resource products and the domestic "anti-involution" policy are expected to resonate positively [5] - The ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran situation have led to production cuts by oil-producing countries, significantly driving up oil prices [5] - It is anticipated that with oil prices remaining high, the PPI may turn positive year-on-year in March [5]