光大证券研究·2026-03-09 23:07Core Viewpoint - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but the outlook for copper prices is optimistic for 2026 due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [4]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of March 6, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 101,050 CNY/ton, down 2.76% from February 27, while LME copper closed at 12,869 USD/ton, down 3.21% [4]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East may keep oil prices high, while a decline in U.S. non-farm payrolls in February increases the likelihood of "stagflation" trading [4]. Group 2: Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 8.6%, while LME copper inventory rose by 10.5% [5]. - As of March 6, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 633,000 tons, up 3.5% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 1,307,000 tons, up 4.5% from February 27 [5]. Group 3: Supply - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 1,459 CNY/ton this week [6]. - In December 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 137,000 tons, up 12.9% month-on-month but down 9.9% year-on-year [6]. - Global copper concentrate production in December 2025 was 2,050,000 tons, down 2.2% year-on-year but up 8.4% month-on-month [6]. Group 4: Smelting - The TC spot price reached a new low this week, at -56.1 USD/ton, down 5.1 USD/ton from the previous week [7]. - In February 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,142,400 tons, down 3.1% month-on-month but up 8.0% year-on-year [7]. - In December 2025, electrolytic copper imports were 260,000 tons, down 4.0% month-on-month and down 29.8% year-on-year [7]. Group 5: Demand - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rate to 60.90%, up 33.18 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline by 6.1%, then increase by 2.9% and 4.9% in the following months [8]. - Brass rod production, accounting for about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had an operating rate of 22.78% in February, down 28.08 percentage points month-on-month and down 17.64 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Group 6: Futures - As of March 6, 2026, the open interest for SHFE copper contracts decreased by 4% to 196,000 lots [9]. - The non-commercial net long position for COMEX was 58,000 lots, down 1.3% from the previous week [9].