大宗商品的“战后剧本”怎么写？一文梳理战争对于金融和大宗市场的传导路径

Core Viewpoint - The impact of war on financial and commodity markets is fundamentally characterized by extreme pricing that deviates from conventional financial frameworks, where political logic dominates economic logic and monetary credit logic takes precedence over monetary policy logic [3][7]. Group 1: Initial Phase of War - The core transmission path during the early phase of war involves inflation and liquidity squeeze, driven by geopolitical crises leading to soaring oil prices and rising military spending expectations, which subsequently create systemic liquidity pressures in capital markets [4][12]. - The geopolitical crisis leads to a significant rise in global inflation expectations, which, combined with increased military spending, raises global bond yields and results in liquidity tightening across markets [12][14]. Group 2: Mid-War Phase and Currency Credit - As uncertainty escalates during the mid-war phase, the original monetary credit framework may fail, shifting market pricing anchors towards physical assets, with safe-haven and energy substitution logic providing underlying support for strategic commodities [5][18]. - The market's pricing behavior during war follows an extreme order of survival, safety, credit, and profit, indicating that conventional financial frameworks may experience a degree of failure, with geopolitical factors dictating resource allocation and monetary credit influencing asset distribution [8][19]. Group 3: Historical Context and Asset Changes - The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) serves as a reference for changes in commodity assets, illustrating how geopolitical conflicts can disrupt global energy supply chains and impact asset pricing [38][37]. - Historical examples, such as the Gulf War and the Iran-Iraq War, demonstrate that extreme geopolitical events can lead to significant price surges in oil and gold, often detached from underlying supply-demand fundamentals [7][41]. Group 4: Energy Transition and Strategic Resources - The logic of energy substitution is not merely a transition from old to new energy sources; rather, it is driven by supply shortages caused by war and energy crises, prompting the adoption of emergency alternative technologies [35][36]. - Countries are increasingly focusing on resource protection and stockpiling strategies, which will drive prices for physical assets like precious metals, energy, and food [32][35]. Group 5: Future Scenarios and Market Implications - The current geopolitical situation, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, will significantly influence the dynamics of the commodity market, with potential scenarios ranging from temporary supply disruptions to prolonged physical blockades [56][57]. - The potential for a global energy crisis could lead to significant price increases for oil and other commodities, with the market reacting to both supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures [58][59].