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Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of including commodities, particularly gold, in investment portfolios to mitigate risks during geopolitical shocks, as evidenced by historical data showing commodities often perform well when stocks and bonds decline [4][30][41]. Group 1: Geopolitical Events and Market Reactions - Brent crude oil surged by 28% last week, marking the fastest price increase since the 1980s, while WTI surpassed $120 and gold reached a historic high of $5,181 [4]. - Historical analysis by J.P. Morgan of 36 geopolitical events from 1940 to 2022 reveals that stock market performance typically rebounds after initial declines, with 12-month returns returning to normal levels [8][12]. - The 1973 oil embargo is noted as a significant exception, where the S&P 500 fell by 37% over 12 months due to the U.S.'s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil, contrasting with the more resilient U.S. oil production landscape in 2022 [15][20]. Group 2: Asset Performance During Geopolitical Shocks - J.P. Morgan's analysis indicates that during geopolitical shocks, commodities like gold and oil tend to yield positive returns, while stocks and bonds generally decline [22][26]. - Specifically, gold averaged a 1.8% increase and oil a 1.3% increase during such events, while stocks and bonds both averaged a decline of 1.6% [26]. - The article highlights that in the 2022 geopolitical crisis, both the S&P 500 and U.S. bond indices experienced significant declines, demonstrating the failure of the traditional stock-bond relationship [30]. Group 3: Importance of Commodity Allocation - The article argues for the inclusion of a "third leg" in investment portfolios, which consists of commodities, to enhance stability against market shocks [31][34]. - It suggests that while many investors have stocks and bonds, they often lack adequate commodity exposure, which can provide a buffer during times of crisis [41]. - The recommendation is to start with gold as a foundational commodity investment, with plans to diversify into energy and industrial metals as market conditions improve [35][40].