张伟：解码4.5%-5%增长区间背后的历史坐标与战略雄心

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has set an economic growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, which, while lower than the average growth rate of the past 40 years, represents a significant increment given the current GDP base of 140 trillion yuan. Each percentage point of growth now equates to the impact of two percentage points a decade ago, indicating a new economic rhythm for China [1]. Summary by Sections Newness of the Growth Target - The growth target's newness lies in its clear range with both upper and lower limits, contrasting with previous vague targets. The addition of the phrase "strive for better results" indicates a policy direction that allows for potential higher growth in the future [2]. Deep Implications of the Target - The lower limit of 4.5% reflects a bottom-line thinking aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan," which requires an average annual GDP growth of at least 4.17% to achieve a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035. The upper limit of 5% is set in accordance with current resource endowments and external environments, suggesting that potential growth rates may increase with advancements in technology and productivity [3][4]. Strategic Choices for Future Development - The target reflects a strategic balance in four key areas: 1. Quantity vs. Quality: Emphasis on qualitative improvements alongside reasonable quantitative growth, driven by advancements in new productivity and technology [6]. 2. Short-term vs. Long-term: The target supports immediate growth needs while allowing for future development space, ensuring a smooth transition to long-term goals [7]. 3. Development vs. Stability: Avoiding excessive growth that could lead to inefficiencies and instability, thus preserving sustainable development [8]. 4. Domestic vs. International: The target provides a framework for stable domestic growth while accommodating external uncertainties, balancing various domestic and international objectives [9].