数据点评 | 出口飙升的“春节效应”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in exports in January-February is primarily driven by the "Spring Festival misalignment," contributing 8.4 percentage points, while external demand improvement adds another 6.8 percentage points [3][9][81]. Export Analysis - The export growth in January-February reached 21.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than the expected 7.3% and previous value of 6.6% [2][8]. - The "Spring Festival misalignment" has a prolonged impact on exports, lasting up to one and a half months, with last year's earlier festival leading to a low base for this year's figures [3][9]. - Labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, clothing, and furniture saw the most significant export rebounds, benefiting directly from the "Spring Festival misalignment" and improved demand from the U.S. [3][19][81]. Country Structure - The recovery in U.S. demand and acceleration in emerging market demand are the two key drivers supporting exports [4][28]. - Exports to the U.S. rebounded by 13.4 percentage points to -16.7%, while exports to Africa and ASEAN also showed strong growth, reflecting the industrialization and internal demand release in emerging economies [4][28][29]. Import Perspective - Imports in January-February increased by 19.8% year-on-year, with processing trade imports rising by 19.1% to 37.9% [4][35][71]. - The import growth of electromechanical products improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 14.9% to 23.7%, and integrated circuits saw a strong rebound of 23.2% [4][35][71]. Future Outlook - The "Spring Festival misalignment" may lead to a decrease in export figures for March, but the overall export growth for the year is expected to remain high [5][43][83]. - The strong export data for January-February reflects ongoing improvements in external demand, with expectations of stable growth driven by U.S. inventory replenishment and easing tariff conditions [5][43][83]. Regular Tracking - Both exports and imports showed strength in January-February, with consumer electronics and light industrial products experiencing notable rebounds [54][57]. - Exports of capital goods, intermediate goods, and energy resources also saw increases, indicating a broad-based recovery across various sectors [54][57].