A股2026年回顾与展望，能否增加居民财产性收入？｜资本市场

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a long-term and steady bull market to increase residents' property income, highlighting the structural slow bull characteristics of the A-share market since 2026, with significant internal differentiation [3][5]. Group 1: Policy and Institutional Support - The importance of the stock market as a means for residents to increase their asset income was first explicitly stated in a Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25, 2025, linking the increase in residents' property income with a stable and active capital market [5]. - The meeting called for addressing the bottlenecks for long-term capital entering the market and enhancing investor protection to provide institutional support for residents to increase income through the stock market [5]. - In March 2026, the government work report mentioned enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced regulations on short-term trading to facilitate long-term capital market entry [5][6]. Group 2: A-share Market Performance - As of early March 2026, the A-share market exhibited structural slow bull characteristics, with the Wind All A Index rising approximately 8.3%, while small and medium-sized growth stocks led the gains with a 17% increase in the Wind Microplate Index [7]. - The large-cap blue-chip stocks (CSI 300) only saw a slight increase of 1.74%, indicating significant index differentiation [7]. - The market showed a dual mainline rotation, with cyclical resource products (non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals) rising over 15% due to geopolitical factors and supply-side constraints, while hard technology and new productivity sectors (liquid-cooled servers, semiconductor equipment) attracted continuous investment [7]. Group 3: Future Drivers and Support Logic for A-shares - The policy window period is highlighted, with the national two sessions focusing on new productivity (humanoid robots, 6G, commercial aerospace) and fiscal support for equipment upgrades and security capability construction [8]. - Liquidity is expected to remain loose, with domestic monetary policy being moderately relaxed and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a continued trend of foreign capital inflow [8]. - Profit recovery is anticipated, with a mild rebound in China's Producer Price Index (PPI) improving profits in upstream resource products and midstream manufacturing [8]. - In Q2 2026, the performance of cyclical sectors (chemicals, non-ferrous metals) and AI leaders (computing power/applications) is expected to be significant, with the Shanghai Composite Index projected to fluctuate between 4000 and 4300 points [8]. - In the second half of 2026, if the Federal Reserve's rate cut materializes and domestic policies are strengthened, the main index may break previous highs, fluctuating between 4300 and 4600 points, with potential resonance from AI applications, cyclical products, and consumer recovery [8].