【宏观】2026年出口"开门红"能持续吗？——2026年1-2月进出口数据点评（赵格格/周可）

Core Viewpoint - In January-February 2026, China's exports increased by 21.8% year-on-year, driven by strong overseas demand, significant competitive advantages in high-value-added products, and a solidified diversified market advantage [5]. Group 1: Export Data - Cumulative exports for January-February reached $656.58 billion, exceeding expectations of 7.33% growth [4]. - Cumulative imports amounted to $442.96 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, surpassing the expected 6.94% [4]. - The trade surplus for January-February was $213.62 billion, compared to a surplus of $114.11 billion in December 2025 [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The outlook for exports remains optimistic, despite potential short-term disruptions from the US-Iran conflict and high base effects [5]. - China's complete manufacturing system continues to showcase advantages, particularly in the automotive, electronics, and equipment manufacturing sectors [5]. - Strong demand from emerging markets, with manufacturing PMI remaining above the growth line, and robust infrastructure investment needs in Belt and Road Initiative countries are expected to boost exports of construction machinery, building materials, and electromechanical equipment [5]. - Upcoming visits by US President Trump to China may ease US-China relations, while strong AI investment demand and the EU's fiscal expansion are anticipated to further support China's exports [5].