数据点评 | 出口飙升的“春节效应”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in exports in January-February is primarily driven by the "Spring Festival misalignment," contributing 8.4 percentage points, while external demand improvement accounts for an additional 6.8 percentage points [2][9][84] Export Analysis - The export growth in January-February reached 21.8% year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 15.2 percentage points compared to December 2025 [8][9] - The "Spring Festival misalignment" effect is expected to influence export readings, with a long impact period of up to one and a half months, leading to a low base effect from the previous year [2][9] - Labor-intensive industries, such as textiles and furniture, showed significant export rebounds, benefiting directly from the "Spring Festival misalignment" and improved demand from the U.S. [2][19][28] Country-Specific Insights - The recovery in U.S. demand and acceleration in emerging market demand are key drivers for export growth, with exports to the U.S. rebounding by 13.4 percentage points [3][28] - Exports to Africa and ASEAN also showed strong growth, reflecting the industrialization acceleration and domestic demand release in emerging economies [3][29] Import Analysis - Imports in January-February increased by 19.8% year-on-year, with processing trade imports rising significantly by 19.1 percentage points [3][35][71] - The import growth of mechanical and electrical products improved notably, with integrated circuits showing a year-on-year increase of 23.2% [3][71] Future Outlook - The "Spring Festival misalignment" may lead to a decrease in export readings for March, but the overall export growth for the year is expected to remain high due to stable external demand and improved inventory replenishment in the U.S. [4][84] - The strong export data for January-February reflects ongoing improvements in external demand, with expectations of continued high growth throughout the year [4][84] Regular Tracking - Both exports and imports showed strength in January-February, with consumer electronics and light industrial products experiencing notable rebounds [5][54] - Capital goods, intermediate goods, and energy resources also saw increased export growth, indicating a broad-based recovery [5][57]