月度前瞻 | “春节错位” 如何影响经济开门红？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the "Spring Festival misalignment" on economic data for January and February, which may lead to inflated figures for these months and depressed figures for March, affecting market expectations [10][121]. Group 1: Impact of Spring Festival Misalignment - The "Spring Festival misalignment" can significantly disturb quarterly economic data, leading to fluctuations in year-on-year growth rates, with some years seeing variations of up to 40 percentage points [11][121]. - The misalignment primarily affects the supply side more than the demand side, with an impact cycle lasting over a month, characterized by three phases: pre-holiday rush, holiday shutdown, and post-holiday resumption [18][121]. - This year's earlier return home phenomenon may amplify the misalignment's effects, potentially increasing January-February economic data by 8.4 percentage points for exports and 0.7-0.8 percentage points for industrial value added, while March data may drop by 18.6 percentage points [22][122]. Group 2: Actual Resumption of Work - After excluding the Spring Festival misalignment, production and export indicators show improvement, with upstream and downstream sectors experiencing varying degrees of recovery compared to December 2025 [46][123]. - Key indicators such as the high furnace operating rate and PTA operating rate have increased by 2-4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in production [46][123]. - Export conditions have also improved, with port cargo throughput rising by 7.4 percentage points year-on-year in January-February 2026 compared to December 2025 [64][123]. Group 3: Economic Performance Expectations - The combination of the Spring Festival misalignment and production improvements suggests that industrial value added and export growth may rebound positively in January-February, with industrial value added expected to grow by 6% and exports by 21.9% [94][99]. - Consumer data is anticipated to exceed previous pessimistic expectations, with service consumption likely to outperform goods consumption due to ongoing consumer confidence recovery [125][116]. - Social retail sales are projected to rise to around 3% year-on-year, with service retail sales growth expected to exceed 5.5% [117][116]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The easing of the "debt squeeze" effect may lead to better-than-expected fixed asset investment growth compared to December 2025, although the rebound may be limited [105][126]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to improve, but real estate investment remains weak due to ongoing financing pressures on property companies [126][105]. - Overall fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to be in the range of -5% to -10% year-on-year for January-February, with a more positive trend expected in the second quarter [126][105].