中金 | MLCC周期复盘与展望：算力增长重构供需，结构性提价渐行渐近

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) market is currently in a structural price increase window, driven by cost pressures and high demand for high-end products, particularly in the AI server segment [3][10]. Demand Analysis - The demand for MLCCs is expected to grow significantly, particularly in AI servers, with predictions of an 87% and 88% increase in demand for 2026 and 2027, respectively [26][30]. - The general server MLCC demand is projected to increase by 49% and 61% in the same years [30]. - The overall MLCC market is anticipated to see a modest growth of 2% and 8% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with notable differentiation in demand across sectors [34]. Historical Price Trends - Historical price increases for MLCCs have been observed in cycles lasting 1.5 to 2 years, with significant profit margin expansions for manufacturers during these periods [6][17]. - Previous cycles saw price increases of 70% and 20% in 2017/2018 and 2020/2021, respectively, driven by supply-demand mismatches and cost pass-throughs [3][10]. Supply Dynamics - The supply of high-end MLCCs is currently tight, with major players like Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics operating at high capacity utilization rates of 90% or more [42][40]. - The competitive landscape is highly concentrated, with Japanese and Korean manufacturers dominating the high-end MLCC market, accounting for approximately 85% of the market share [40][41]. Price Increase Drivers - The current price increase is primarily driven by rising metal costs, particularly silver, which has seen price increases of over 100% [10][14]. - High-end MLCCs are experiencing demand-driven price increases due to robust orders from AI infrastructure and ASIC chip manufacturers [10][11]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the current market is more likely to experience localized price increases rather than systemic ones, with domestic manufacturers potentially benefiting from cost pass-throughs [11][12]. - The expansion plans of major manufacturers focus on high-end MLCCs for AI servers and automotive applications, indicating a strategic shift towards high-value segments [43][44].