月度前瞻 | “春节错位” 如何影响经济开门红？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the "Spring Festival misalignment" on economic data for January and February, which may lead to a distorted understanding of the economic "opening red" and affect market expectations [4][11][124]. Group 1: Impact of "Spring Festival Misalignment" - The "Spring Festival misalignment" is expected to push up economic data for January and February while lowering data for March, creating volatility in year-on-year comparisons [4][5][124]. - Historical data shows that the Spring Festival, being a movable holiday, causes significant fluctuations in economic indicators, with some years experiencing changes of up to 40 percentage points [4][12][124]. - The impact of the Spring Festival misalignment is more pronounced on the supply side than on the demand side, with effects lasting over a month [4][19][124]. Group 2: Actual Resumption of Work - After excluding the Spring Festival misalignment, production and export indicators show improvement, while domestic demand presents a mixed performance [6][126]. - Production indicators such as high furnace operation rates and highway freight volume have improved, indicating better production conditions compared to late December 2025 [6][50][126]. - Export conditions have also improved, with port cargo throughput showing a year-on-year increase of 7.4 percentage points compared to December 2025 [6][68][126]. Group 3: Economic "Opening Red" Interpretation - The combination of "Spring Festival misalignment" and production improvements is likely to result in a positive rebound in industrial value added and export year-on-year figures for January and February [8][98][128]. - Forecasts suggest that industrial value added for January and February may reach a year-on-year growth of 6%, while exports could rise to 21.9% [8][98][128]. - Consumer data is expected to exceed previous pessimistic market expectations, with service consumption likely to outperform goods consumption [8][120][128]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The easing of the "debt crowding-out effect" may lead to better fixed investment growth compared to December 2025, although the rebound may be limited [9][109][129]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to improve, but real estate investment remains weak due to ongoing financing pressures [9][109][129]. - Overall fixed asset investment is projected to show a year-on-year improvement, but still face challenges in turning positive [9][109][129].