李迅雷专栏 | 中国出口份额提升空间还有多大？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in China's export share of global trade despite the importance of exports in driving economic growth, attributing this to factors such as currency depreciation and low export prices. However, when excluding these factors, China's export volume share is increasing, indicating a strong potential for future growth in export contributions to GDP [3][7][9]. Group 1: Trends in China's Export Share - China's export share of global trade peaked at 14.9% in 2021 but has been below this level from 2022 to 2025, with a projected recovery starting in 2026 [3][6]. - The analysis indicates that the decline in export share is primarily due to the impact of export prices and exchange rates, while the volume of exports continues to grow [7][9]. - The article predicts that by 2030, China's export share will stabilize around 17%, suggesting a potential increase of over 2 percentage points from current levels [5][86]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Export Growth - The article identifies three main factors supporting the increase in China's export volume share: 1. Accelerated industrial upgrading leading to a higher proportion of high-value-added products in exports [14][16]. 2. Continuous price declines in Chinese export products due to a "strong supply, weak demand" environment, enhancing competitiveness [16][18]. 3. The "Belt and Road" initiative diversifying export markets and mitigating external shocks [18][21]. Group 3: Currency and Price Dynamics - The article notes that since 2022, there has been a divergence between China's trade surplus and the actual effective exchange rate of the yuan, with expectations of yuan appreciation in the future [4][59]. - Factors limiting further declines in export prices include potential trade friction risks, optimization of export tax policies, and the linkage between domestic and foreign sales prices [43][49][52]. - The yuan's exchange rate is expected to appreciate gradually, supported by strong export performance and increased use of the yuan in international trade [61][72]. Group 4: Quantitative Assessment of Export Share - A quantitative assessment indicates that China's export share is expected to rise from 14.4% in 2025 to 17% by 2030, reflecting a recovery in export performance and favorable currency dynamics [5][86]. - The analysis suggests that the growth in export volume share will be driven by a combination of factors, including a narrowing of price declines and a stable exchange rate environment [83][84].