Oracle(US:ORCL) 美股研究社·2026-03-11 11:59Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox faced by cloud vendors in the AI computing era: explosive order growth contrasted with deteriorating cash flow [1][3]. Financial Performance - Oracle's revenue reached $17.2 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase, with Non-GAAP EPS at $1.79, up 21%, significantly exceeding market expectations [5]. - Cloud revenue hit $8.9 billion, growing 44%, with Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue soaring 84% to $4.9 billion, indicating strong demand driven by AI [6]. Order Book and Future Revenue - Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO) reached $553 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $540 billion, with most new RPO coming from large AI training contracts [6]. - The management indicated that the majority of new AI contracts do not require Oracle to bear the GPU costs, as clients either prepay or purchase their own GPUs [9][10]. Business Model Transformation - Oracle is transitioning to a model akin to "real estate development" in the AI space, where it builds data centers and leases computing power to AI companies, rather than just providing on-demand services [7][11]. - This model reduces Oracle's capital risk, as clients assume the depreciation risk of the hardware, allowing Oracle to focus on providing stable power and network services [10]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow Concerns - Despite alleviating some financing concerns, Oracle's capital expenditures have surged, with $39.17 billion spent this year against $17.36 billion in operating cash flow, resulting in a free cash flow of -$21.8 billion [13]. - Over the past four quarters, capital expenditures reached $48.25 billion, leading to a cumulative free cash flow of -$24.7 billion, indicating a significant cash flow challenge [13]. Future Outlook and Risks - Management maintains revenue guidance of $67 billion for FY2026 and raises FY2027 revenue target to $90 billion, betting on sustained AI computing demand [14]. - A potential risk is that while the prepayment model reduces Oracle's immediate financial burden, it may lead to decreased customer loyalty if clients opt to build their own data centers in the future [14][15]. Industry Insight - The article concludes that the AI era is characterized by high demand but also significant capital consumption, with Oracle positioning itself as a major player in AI infrastructure [15].