中金2026年展望 | 主动权益基金：数往知来，乘势启程

Market Overview - The public fund industry in 2025 experienced a gradual recovery with new regulations promoting high-quality development, leading to a year-on-year growth of 16.8% in the scale of existing funds, although 80% of products faced continuous redemption trends [2][14] - The median return for actively managed equity funds reached 29.8%, with 75 funds doubling their returns, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [2][18] Performance Analysis - The performance of active equity funds showed significant differentiation, with cyclical and technology themes leading, while consumer themes lagged behind [2][18] - The median excess return was 14.0%, with 96.9% of active equity funds achieving positive returns, highlighting a strong recovery from previous years [18] Fund Issuance and Redemption - The issuance of new active equity funds saw a notable increase, with 340 new products launched and total issuance reaching 164.2 billion units, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.9% [11] - Despite the increase in new fund issuance, existing funds faced redemption pressures, with a total of 2.58 trillion units redeemed, a decrease of 12.1% year-on-year [14][15] Sector Allocation - The allocation to Hong Kong stocks peaked at 17.0% in Q2 but fell to 14.4% by Q4, reflecting a volatile market sentiment [3][31] - Technology sector allocations reached a historical high of 38.2%, driven by strong demand for AI and semiconductor industries, while traditional consumer sectors saw significant reductions [3][34] Institutional Landscape - The ranking of leading fund management institutions remained stable, with E Fund and China Universal maintaining top positions, while Yongying Fund emerged as a significant player, jumping from 43rd to 10th place [3][37] - Smaller institutions like Zhonghang and Debang successfully navigated the competitive landscape by focusing on niche strategies and achieving substantial growth in management scale [38][39] Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 suggests cautious optimism for the continuation of excess returns in actively managed equity funds, supported by emerging industry trends and regulatory improvements [4] - The shift in fund growth drivers from new issuance to performance-driven factors indicates a potential for a positive cycle of "performance-scale" in the coming year [4][15]