中金 | 宏观探市3月报：AI，地缘与A股韧性

Core Viewpoint - In February, global market volatility increased, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets, and non-US markets performing better than the US market. Value and small-cap styles led the gains, while risk appetite declined, leading to increases in US Treasuries, the US dollar, and gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 5.4% in February, with the Korean Kospi Index surging by 19.5%. European markets also performed well, with the UK FTSE 100 Index up by 6.7% and the German DAX Index up by 3% [1]. - In contrast, US markets weakened due to tight liquidity and concerns over the macroeconomic impact of AI, with the Nasdaq Index falling by 3.4% and the S&P 500 down by 0.9%. The Dow Jones Index saw a slight increase of 0.2% [1][2]. - Market style rotation occurred, with small-cap and value styles leading, as evidenced by the Russell 2000 Index rising by 0.7% and the S&P Value Index increasing by 2.1%, while growth stocks declined by 3.5% [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Economic Factors - The US market's weakness is attributed to two main factors: persistent tight liquidity and negative macroeconomic sentiment regarding AI. Future monetary and fiscal easing in the US is likely, suggesting a trend towards increased global liquidity [2][3]. - Since June 2022, the Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet by approximately $2.3 trillion, leading to a decline in narrow liquidity below the "ample liquidity" threshold. Although liquidity is expected to improve marginally, it remains tight compared to pre-pandemic levels [3][4]. Group 3: AI Impact on Labor Market - Current data indicates that AI has not yet shown a significant overall negative impact on the US labor market. There is a weak U-shaped relationship between AI exposure and employment across industries, with some sectors experiencing job declines while others, like software development, show stronger hiring [5][6]. - Academic research highlights that AI's impact on the labor market includes both displacement and enhancement effects, with lower-level jobs being more susceptible to replacement, while higher-level jobs may benefit from AI advancements [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical Risks - Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly following military actions involving Israel and Iran, have heightened global market volatility, leading to increased prices for gold, oil, and the US dollar. The market's response has been characterized by a flight to safety [7][8]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to influence asset classes significantly, with potential implications for inflation and economic stability in the US [7].